Republicans Win if Biden Wins White House
Former VP is more friend than foe to GOP agenda
With Joe Biden the presumptive Democratic nominee, a contest between Donald Trump and Joe Biden will be a win-win for Republicans and their agenda.
If Trump wins, he can continue to cede policy to congressional Republicans in exchange for their fealty and Republicans could cruise through their to-do list with ease.
If Biden wins, Republicans would encounter an old-school Democrat in the White House; someone who views them — not as an adversary, but as a working partner he can work with to get things done.
So whereas a Trump win allows Republicans to move effortlessly on their agenda, a Biden presidency provides a Trump-respite many Republicans want while enabling them to still advance their priorities.
Republican priorities are easy to discern. Far more than being the party of conservative political thought, the Republican party is the party of big business and the wealthy individuals who run them. Their goal, as manifest through the Republican agenda, is to shrink the size of government to where it becomes inconsequential in matters related to business oversight and social welfare. For Republicans, less government will result in less taxes, less business regulation, fewer government programs and ultimately more profits.
Achieving this outcome has been a work in progress spanning several decades, while accelerating under Republican administrations. During the Trump administration Republicans have done well.
They managed to pass one of the largest corporate tax cuts in U.S. history, reversed scores of regulations that protected the environment, public health and safety; and they managed to give a growing portion of U.S. government operations and assets to the corporate sector in the name of privatization.
To secure these and other political gains against court challenges and election loss, Republicans and Trump appointed scores of young, Libertarian-minded judges with the expectation they’ll uphold the GOP agenda in the courts. The belief is, as lifetime appointees, these young judges will sustain Republican policies for decades to come.
For their part, Democrats have managed to slow Republican efforts over the years — rebuffing attempts to privatize Social Security, for instance. But even during Democratic administrations, Republicans have chipped away at programs and policies in ways that still advanced their agenda.
That’s because as a political party, Democrats don’t have an agenda of their own. That is, they don’t have an agenda that serves as a countervailing force to the Republicans’. Notwithstanding the progressive wing of the Democratic party, the party as a whole doesn’t advocate for bold new programs and policies.
Not since the Johnson administration of the 1960s have Democrats advocated for the large-scale use of the federal government to address wide-ranging problems.
Since that time, instead of replacing those anachronistic needs-based programs with European-style universal ones, or enacting economic policies akin to the Green New Deal, Democrats have put their energies toward preserving the status quo and fending off Republican efforts to dismantle it.
The Democratic party that once had courage to enact programs to grow our middle-class, advance the ideals of equality, and ease the suffering of the poor, now strives for complacency. Faced with no liberal agenda to countervail its own, the GOP encounters little resistance.
Moreover, whenever Republican presidents take office they do so fully committed to implementing their party’s plan for tax cuts, service cuts, and shrinking the government footprint. They’re so committed to these principles that they bring a deep theological conviction to their defense. Anyone who dissents isn’t just wrong, they’re evil.
Compare them to the Democratic presidents who have taken office — not as ideologues, but as pragmatists, and not with convictions, but with promises to restore our faith in the economy, government, or other institution the Republicans wrecked — while promising to work with those same Republicans to repair it.
As a centrist Democrat, Joe Biden would likely govern in the tradition of reconciliation and accommodation. His body of work reflects a desire to compromise, to reach across the aisle and achieve progress by reconciling the maximum number of competing interests. This explains his appeal among Republicans and why they prefer working with moderate Democrats rather than the party’s progressives: fewer differences to overcome result in Republicans needing to sacrifice as little as possible.
Biden has spoken fondly of his friends in the Republican party, and believes they’ll have ‘an epiphany’ after Trump leaves office and once again work with Democrats. Perhaps he believes that as president, Republicans will extend him consideration for his membership in the Good-Ole-Boys club. Consideration they never afforded him as vice-president.
But in Congress, Republican intransigence has become commonplace, leading to legislation stagnation and questions of how a President Biden would overcome Republican resistance to governing.
Biden sees himself as a dealmaker capable of unifying a divided government, and yet compromising when Democrats are in power is one way Republicans advance their agenda, quid pro quo. So what portion of the GOP agenda would Biden cede to Republicans in exchange for their cooperation?
There is also reason to question how cooperative a McConnell-led Senate would be in confirming a Biden nominee to the Supreme Court. Biden opposes “court stacking” or similar strategies meant to offset the high court’s conservative tilt, so it’s unclear what leverage he could wield over Republicans. In the end he might have to nominate someone to McConnell’s liking or risk the embarrassment of Republicans not confirming his nominee. Either outcome would serve Republican interests.
It stands to reason that even if Democrats gain control of Congress following the November election, Republicans have little reason to fear passage of New-Deal or Great Society-style programs and thus, have little cause to worry about the fate of their agenda. Biden values congeniality too much to expend valuable political capital endorsing progressive initiatives he doesn’t believe in. Especially if doing so would cost him Republican support for something he considers more important.
In fact, even as some Democrats reportedly are contemplating a new governing agenda in the wake of the coronavirus, and Biden is said to favor “sweeping economic changes” post-pandemic; moderate Democrats say the party needs to rein in expectations in hopes of gaining Republican support, and a Biden advisor quickly pointed out the presumptive nominee remains opposed to the progressive ideas of his former opponent, Bernie Sanders.
Make no mistake, if elected, Joe Biden would undoubtedly be a good president. He would restore decency to the presidency and normalcy to everyday life. His policies would reflect a concern for the average-Joe and a desire to serve all Americans, not just his core constituency.
But his propensity for collegiality will do little to check Republican efforts to reshape the role of government and disrupt the balance between public and business interests. In the end, the same qualities that make Joe Biden the antidote to Donald Trump, make him the unwitting ally of Republicans.